AKR Corporindo's Performance to Boost from Rising Fuel Import Quota

Government Policy to Boost Fuel Supply

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has announced a potential 10% increase in the fuel import quota for 2026. This policy is expected to benefit PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA), a major player in the fuel distribution sector. The increase in import quota is seen as a positive development for AKRA, as it is expected to lead to an increase in the company's fuel supply, thereby potentially boosting its sales volume.

Strong Revenue Contribution from Fuel Trading

AKRA's revenue is significantly dependent on its fuel trading and distribution segment, which accounted for approximately 75% of its total revenue in the first nine months of 2025. Therefore, any increase in fuel supply is likely to have a substantial impact on the company's financial performance. Analysts from Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia have noted that the rising domestic fuel consumption, which grew by 2.6% YoY in 2025, is a key factor supporting this projection.

Market Trends Supporting Growth

The market share of non-subsidized fuel sales by non-Pertamina players, including AKRA, has been on the rise. In 2025, this share increased to 15% from 11% in 2024, indicating a growing demand for fuel from private distributors. Oktavianus Audi from Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia believes that this trend is likely to continue, driven by the increasing demand for fuel from private sector players.

Financial Projections

Based on the expected increase in fuel supply and the positive market trends, analysts project AKRA's revenue to grow by 5.27% YoY to Rp43.4 trillion in 2026. Additionally, the company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach Rp137.5. This growth is anticipated to be driven by the increased volume of fuel distribution, which is likely to be facilitated by the higher import quota.