Alfamart's Performance to Shine Ahead of 2025/2026 Nataru

Analysts' Positive Outlook

Analysts from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas predict that PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT), the operator of Alfamart retail chain, will experience a significant performance boost as Indonesia approaches the 2025/2026 Nataru period. The forecast is based on the anticipated recovery in consumer spending during the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by government social assistance worth approximately Rp 30 trillion and seasonal year-end factors.

Key Drivers of Growth

1. Food & Groceries Demand: Essential goods, daily consumption products, and seasonal items are expected to see a surge in demand.
2. Non-Food Categories: Higher-margin products such as household and personal care items will likely contribute positively to revenue.
3. Historical Trends: Nataru is historically associated with increased household consumption, family celebrations, and travel activities, which drive both store traffic and average basket size at Alfamart outlets.
4. Regional Growth: Outer Java regions are particularly noted for showing the most aggressive growth patterns during this period.

Analyst Insights

Abida Massi Armand, Fundamental Analyst at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, highlighted that the Nataru period is characterized by heightened consumption patterns and travel activities, which historically benefit Alfamart's business. The increased demand is expected to be particularly pronounced in regions outside Java, where growth has been most robust.

Market Implications

The positive outlook for AMRT shares is supported by the anticipated improvement in sales and revenue during the Nataru period. Investors are advised to consider these projections when making investment decisions regarding Alfamart's stock.