Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Bank Indonesia (BI) has revised its 2025 Annual Budget projection to a Rp68.66 trillion surplus from an initial deficit forecast of Rp26.71 trillion ²

. The significant turnaround is attributed to higher-than-expected revenue of Rp234.39 trillion, driven by monetary gains from foreign exchange interventions and securities portfolio management. This surplus positions BI as one of the largest tax contributors, with an estimated corporate income tax payment of approximately Rp15.1 trillion (22% of Rp68.66 trillion surplus).

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Bank Indonesia's 2025 Budget Turns to Surplus Amid Strong Revenue Performance

Significant Budget Revision

Bank Indonesia has revised its 2025 Annual Budget projection to a Rp68.66 trillion surplus, marking a significant shift from the initially planned deficit of Rp26.71 trillion ²

. This change is primarily driven by substantially higher revenue projections, reaching Rp234.39 trillion - 138.58% of the original target. In contrast, expenditures are projected at Rp165.72 trillion, or 84.62% of the initial target.

Revenue Drivers and Tax Implications

The substantial surplus is mainly attributed to monetary gains from foreign exchange interventions and securities portfolio management, as explained by economist Yanuar Rizky from Bright Institute ²

. This significant financial performance positions BI as one of the largest tax contributors to the government. Based on the 22% corporate tax rate, the estimated tax contribution would be approximately Rp15.1 trillion.

Comparison with Other State-Owned Enterprises

To put this figure into perspective, BI's projected surplus of Rp68.66 trillion is comparable to the financial performance of major state-owned enterprises. For instance, PT Pertamina (Persero) recorded a net profit of Rp49.54 trillion in 2024, resulting in a corporate tax payment of Rp10.9 trillion. The expected tax contribution from BI's surplus is only slightly lower, highlighting the central bank's significant role as a taxpayer.

Detailed Financial Performance

BI's revenue is generated from various sources including foreign asset management, institutional activities, and administrative services. As of September 2025, the central bank had already recorded revenue of Rp50.5 trillion, with projections indicating this would rise to Rp58.1 trillion by year-end ¹

. On the expenditure side, BI spent Rp10.8 trillion through September 2025, with projections suggesting this would reach Rp24.7 trillion by December 2025, resulting in a net surplus of Rp33.3 trillion as per the initial report ¹.

References