Bank Mandiri Sees Strong Domestic Consumption Driving Economic Growth

Positive Outlook for Early 2026

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. (BMRI) remains optimistic that domestic consumption will continue to be the main driver of Indonesia's economic growth in early 2026. The bank's Chief Economist, Andry Asmoro, highlighted that consumption has shown significant strength since the Christmas and New Year period, supported by stable inflation and improving consumer purchasing power.

Inflation and Consumption Trends

The positive consumption trend is supported by Indonesia's inflation rate, which remained within the government's target range of 1.5% to 3.5% in 2025. As of December 2025, the national inflation rate stood at 2.92% year-on-year (YoY), indicating stable price conditions amid ongoing economic activity. On a monthly basis, inflation was recorded at 0.64% in December 2025, slightly higher than the previous month due to increased demand during the holiday season.

Factors Supporting Consumption

Several factors are contributing to the strong consumption growth:

1. Government stimulus measures implemented in late 2025
2. Seasonal factors including Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr in Q1 2026
3. Improved consumer spending power as reflected in the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI), which grew by 17% month-on-month in December 2025
4. Stable core inflation at 0.20% MoM, indicating sustained domestic demand

Bank Mandiri's Performance

The positive economic outlook aligns with Bank Mandiri's solid financial performance. As of end-November 2025, the bank's credit disbursement grew by 13.1% year-on-year to Rp1,452 trillion. This strong lending growth was supported by effective liquidity management and stable asset quality, reinforcing Bank Mandiri's role as a strategic partner for national economic development.

Outlook for 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, Bank Mandiri expects inflation to remain within a controlled range, supported by conducive food supply conditions. This stability is likely to provide room for continued consumption growth, maintaining domestic demand as the primary driver of national economic expansion.