BI Maintains Cautious Monetary Policy Stance

Economic Indicators Support Status Quo

Bank Indonesia is predicted to keep the BI Rate unchanged at 4.75% during its December 2025 meeting ¹

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Source 2

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/bi-diramal-kembali-pertahankan-bi-rate-pada-level-475-ini-penyebabnya

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Source 3

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-masih-melemah-bank-indonesia-diramal-pertahankan-suku-bunga-desember-2025-ini

. This decision is supported by several key economic indicators. Chief Economist of Bank Permata, Josua Pardede, noted that while there is still room for rate cuts due to The Fed's dovish stance and recent rate cut, domestic factors are currently stabilizing ²

Source 2

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/bi-diramal-kembali-pertahankan-bi-rate-pada-level-475-ini-penyebabnya

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Inflation and Trade Balance

Inflation remains within target range at 1.5%-3.5%, providing policy space ²

. Continued trade surplus also supports the current monetary stance. BCA Chief Economist David Sumual added that positive signals from manufacturing PMI and retail sales in Q4 2025 further justify the wait-and-see approach ¹

Source 1

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/bank-indonesia-diprediksi-pertahankan-bi-rate-475-pada-desember-2025

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Currency Pressures

The rupiah's weakness against USD, currently around Rp16,600, is a significant factor in BI's decision ³

. Chief Economist of Bank Syariah Indonesia, Banjaran Surya Indrastomo, emphasized that maintaining the current rate helps keep interest differentials attractive to support capital inflows and rupiah stability ³

Source 3

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-masih-melemah-bank-indonesia-diramal-pertahankan-suku-bunga-desember-2025-ini

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Market Expectations

The decision is consistent with market expectations following The Fed's recent 25 basis point rate cut to 3.50%-3.75% ⁴

. Analysts note that while BI has cut rates by 125 basis points throughout 2025, current conditions suggest a pause in monetary easing ³

Source 3

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-masih-melemah-bank-indonesia-diramal-pertahankan-suku-bunga-desember-2025-ini

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