Bumi Resources Predicts Stable Coal Prices for 2026

Global Supply Surplus Maintains Price Pressure

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), a prominent coal mining company owned by Bakrie Group, has forecast that coal prices will likely remain stagnant in 2026. The prediction is based on the prevailing global supply surplus condition in the coal market. Maringan M. Ido Hotna Hutabarat, the company's director, explained during a virtual Public Expose event on December 1, 2025, that the surplus has been maintaining pressure on coal prices, preventing significant increases.

Current Coal Price Situation

The global thermal coal price has been under pressure throughout 2025. As of October 2025, the Newcastle Coal Price was recorded at US$103.95 per ton. Similarly, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) for the first period of November 2025 was set at US$103.75 per ton. These prices indicate the continued pressure on the coal market due to the surplus supply.

Impact on Bumi Resources

According to Ido, the stagnant coal prices will not significantly impact Bumi Resources' revenue in 2026 compared to 2025. The company expects its revenue to remain relatively stable unless there is a significant increase in coal imports by China. "Unless China increases its coal imports again, the revenue will be more or less the same in 2026 compared to 2025," Ido explained. This statement underscores the company's cautious outlook on its financial performance for the upcoming year.

Market Dynamics and Future Outlook

The coal industry remains sensitive to global demand fluctuations, particularly from major consumers like China. Any significant changes in China's import policies could potentially impact global coal prices. However, as of now, the market is expected to remain in a surplus condition, maintaining the current price stability.