Climate Change Exacerbates Disaster Risk in Sumatra Through 2040

Environmental Factors Compound Weather Events

Recent flash floods in Sumatra have demonstrated the devastating potential of combined weather and environmental factors. According to Professor Erma Yulihastin, a senior researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), while Cyclone Senyar contributed about 20% to the damage, environmental changes accounted for approximately 80% of the impact. This assessment was made during a public discussion titled 'Extreme Weather Risks and Extreme Solutions' held online on December 18, 2025.

Devastating Human Impact

The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) reported that the floods resulted in 1,059 deaths, 192 missing persons, and 147 damaged homes across Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra. This toll is five times higher than the damage caused by Cyclone Seroja in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) in 2021, despite both being category 3 tropical cyclones.

Climate Change Projections

The research highlights a growing concern that climate change will continue to increase the region's vulnerability to natural disasters through 2040. As global temperatures rise, Sumatra faces heightened risks of extreme weather events compounded by environmental degradation. Experts emphasize the need for comprehensive mitigation strategies to address both climate change and environmental protection.