Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Coconut prices in Indonesia have surged by up to 100% in recent months, driven primarily by increased export demand ¹

². A survey by KedaiKOPI Research Institute found that 83% of respondents reported price increases, with 39.5% attributing it to high export demand ¹. The price surge is affecting households and small businesses, with average coconut prices reaching Rp14,175 per unit ³.

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Coconut Price Surge Creates Challenges for Indonesian Households

Export Demand Drives Domestic Price Increases

The price of coconuts in Indonesia has experienced a significant surge, with some areas seeing prices double in recent months ¹

. According to a survey conducted by the KedaiKOPI Research Institute, 83% of respondents reported an increase in coconut prices, with 39.5% attributing this rise to increased export demand for whole coconuts ¹. The survey involved 400 respondents and provides insight into the factors driving the price increase.

Impact on Households and Small Businesses

The rising coconut prices are having a substantial impact on households and small businesses, particularly housewives and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The average price of coconuts at the household level reached Rp7,000 per unit before the 2025 Eid al-Fitr, surged by 85% to Rp12,950 in mid-year, and further increased by 9.5% to Rp14,175 ³

. This rapid price escalation is creating economic strain on families and businesses that rely on coconut products.

Concerns About Future Price Stability

The survey also revealed that 82% of respondents expressed concern about coconut price stability over the next three months, particularly with the approaching Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr periods ²

. The anticipation of continued high prices is causing worry among consumers who fear further economic pressure. As Ashma Nur Afifah, Head of Research at KedaiKOPI, noted, the concern is justified given the significant price increases observed in recent months.

Government Intervention Urged

As the situation continues to unfold, various stakeholders are calling for government intervention to protect the domestic market from the adverse effects of the export-driven price surge. With the majority of respondents aware of the export factor contributing to price increases, there is growing pressure on policymakers to address the issue and ensure price stability for essential commodities like coconuts.

References