Commodity Stocks and the January Effect: Analyst Insights

Navigating Market Opportunities in 2026

As we enter 2026, the Indonesian stock market is witnessing renewed interest in the January Effect phenomenon. This traditional market pattern suggests that stocks, particularly those with smaller and medium capitalizations, tend to experience a surge in January. Analysts are now identifying top commodity-based stock picks that could capitalize on this trend.

Strategic Investment Approach

Hendra Wardana, Founder of Republik Investor, recommends that investors maintain a disciplined approach by combining momentum with sector selectivity. In the context of the Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) reaching new all-time highs, Wardana suggests that a 'buy on weakness' strategy is more prudent than chasing higher prices. He advises investors to leverage daily market volatility for the gradual accumulation of stocks with strong fundamentals, particularly those that have lagged or are just beginning to form an upward trend.

Market Sentiment and Foreign Investor Activity

The recent activity of foreign investors has been positive, with net buy transactions amounting to Rp 1.62 trillion in the past week alone. This indicates that global investors still have confidence in the Indonesian market, thereby keeping the potential for short to medium-term gains open. While the January Effect may not be as pronounced as in previous years, its psychological impact remains, especially on second-tier and commodity-based stocks.

Key Considerations for Investors

1. Focus on commodity stocks with strong fundamentals
2. Utilize daily volatility for strategic accumulation
3. Maintain a disciplined investment approach
4. Monitor foreign investor sentiment and market trends

By adopting these strategies, investors can potentially maximize their returns during the January Effect period.