Indonesia's December 2025 Inflation to Rise on Seasonal Demand and Food Prices

Seasonal Factors Driving Inflation

Indonesia's inflation is projected to increase in December 2025 due to seasonal factors associated with the Christmas and New Year (Nataru) period. The primary drivers of this inflationary pressure include higher demand for food during the holiday season, adverse weather conditions affecting agricultural production, and distribution challenges that can lead to price increases for volatile foods.

Impact of Makan Bergizi Gratis Program

The implementation of the Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) program is also expected to contribute to the inflationary pressure. According to Muhammad Rizal Taufikurahman, Head of Macroeconomics and Finance at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), while the MBG program will add to the demand for certain staple commodities, its overall national impact is considered relatively limited.

Economic Context and Implications

The inflationary pressures in December 2025 highlight the challenges faced by policymakers in managing economic stability during peak demand periods. While the overall impact of the MBG program on inflation is seen as contained, monitoring its effects on specific food commodity prices will be crucial. The situation underscores the need for effective supply chain management and targeted policy interventions to mitigate potential adverse effects on vulnerable populations.