Key insights and market outlook
Digital transactions are expected to surge by over 50% year-on-year during the 2025/2026 Nataru period, with 80% of transactions projected to be via QRIS. The increased mobility of approximately 119.5 million people (42.01% of the population) traveling during Nataru is driving this growth. Key sectors benefiting include food & beverage, accommodation, transportation, and retail. Bank Indonesia's extension of credit card relaxation policies until mid-2026 is further boosting digital payment adoption.
The upcoming 2025/2026 Nataru period is expected to witness a significant surge in digital transactions, driven by increased travel and consumer spending. Approximately 119.5 million people, representing 42.01% of the population, are projected to travel during this period 1
The QRIS (Quick Response Code Indonesian Standard) system is expected to dominate the digital payment landscape during Nataru, accounting for around 80% of the transaction volume. Ario Tejo Bayu Aji, CEO of PT Jalin Pembayaran Nusantara, noted that the correlation between physical mobility and digital transaction spikes is becoming increasingly strong. The digital payment ecosystem is particularly active in sectors supporting travel activities, including food & beverage, accommodation, transportation, and retail 1
The Nataru period, combined with the Harbolnas (National Online Shopping Day) event, is also expected to drive credit card transactions. Bank Indonesia data shows that credit card transactions in October 2025 reached 45.224 million, a 11.75% year-on-year increase, with transaction values growing 11.05% to Rp 41.25 trillion. The central bank's decision to extend credit card relaxation policies until mid-2026 is serving as a catalyst for this growth 2
To accommodate the increased travel during Nataru, various infrastructure preparations are underway. The Ministry of Public Works has implemented several mitigation measures for extreme weather conditions, including the readiness of disaster relief units and materials. PT Cimanggis Cibitung Tollways (CCT) has also enhanced its operational readiness along the toll road, anticipating peak traffic on December 26, 2025, and January 2, 2026 3
The Badan Pengatur Jalan Tol (BPJT) projects that approximately 2.9 million vehicles will leave Jakarta during Nataru, representing a 12.2% increase compared to normal daily traffic conditions. This significant traffic volume is expected to test the readiness of toll roads and other transportation infrastructure 5
Nataru Digital Transaction Surge
QRIS Dominance in Payments
Credit Card Growth