Energy Markets Caught in Geopolitical Crosscurrents

Mixed Price Movements Amid Global Tensions

Energy commodity prices showed divergent trends as global geopolitical factors continue to influence market dynamics. As of December 22, 2025, at 18:05 WIB, WTI crude oil was priced at US$57.45 per barrel, showing a significant year-to-date decline of 20.68%. In contrast, natural gas recorded a 12.73% increase to US$4.09 per MMBtu during the same period. Coal prices stood at US$108.40 per ton, down 13.45% year-to-date.

Geopolitical Factors Driving Volatility

Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX International Berjangka, noted that the global energy market remains trapped in a cycle of volatility driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Key factors include the total blockade against Venezuelan tankers by the US administration and Ukraine's attack on Russia's shadow fleet in the Mediterranean Sea. These developments have prevented oil prices from falling further.

Market Outlook for 2025

The combination of geopolitical tensions and record US oil production reaching 13.8 million barrels per day continues to create uncertainty in energy markets. The situation in Venezuela and the Baltic Sea region remains particularly critical in shaping market sentiment. As the global energy landscape continues to evolve, market participants are advised to monitor these developments closely.