Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Bank Indonesia recorded Rp3.98 trillion in foreign capital inflows into Indonesia's financial markets during December 22-23, 2025. The inflows were distributed across Rp1.59 trillion in stock purchases, Rp1.66 trillion in government bond purchases, and Rp0.74 trillion in BI's Rupiah Securities ¹

². Despite year-to-date net foreign outflows in certain sectors, the recent influx indicates continued interest in Indonesian assets during the year-end period.

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Significant Foreign Capital Inflows in Pre-Year-End Period

Capital Market Dynamics

Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded substantial foreign capital inflows amounting to Rp3.98 trillion during December 22-23, 2025. This inflow was distributed across three major financial instruments: Rp1.59 trillion net purchase in the stock market, Rp1.66 trillion in government bonds (SBN), and Rp0.74 trillion in Bank Indonesia's Rupiah Securities (SRBI) ¹

². The significant inflow indicates continued foreign investor confidence in Indonesia's financial markets despite global economic uncertainties.

Year-to-Date Market Performance

While the recent period showed positive capital inflows, the year-to-date (YTD) picture presents a mixed scenario. As of December 23, 2025, foreign investors recorded net sell-offs of Rp21.08 trillion in the stock market and Rp110.74 trillion in SRBI. However, they maintained a net purchase of Rp0.44 trillion in the SBN market ²

. This mixed performance across different asset classes reflects the complex dynamics of foreign investor sentiment throughout the year.

Market Indicators and Currency Movement

The influx of foreign capital coincided with positive market indicators. The 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) premium decreased to 67.99 bps by December 23, 2025, down from 68.97 bps on December 19, 2025. This reduction indicates improving investor perception of Indonesia's sovereign risk ²

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Currency and Bond Market Stability

The Indonesian Rupiah demonstrated stability during this period. On December 24, 2025, it opened at Rp16,750 per USD, showing appreciation from the previous day's closing rate of Rp16,765 per USD. Simultaneously, the yield on 10-year SBN remained stable at 6.13%, indicating maintained investor confidence in Indonesia's government bonds ²

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Policy Response and Market Outlook

BI's response to these capital flows includes continued coordination with the government and relevant authorities to strengthen Indonesia's external resilience through optimized policy mix strategies. This approach aims to maintain market stability while supporting economic growth as the country approaches the year-end ²

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References