Foreign Capital Flight from Indonesia Intensifies in Early November 2025

Significant Outflow from Government Bonds

Bank Indonesia reported that foreign investors pulled out Rp4.58 trillion from Indonesia during the first week of November 2025. The majority of this capital flight, amounting to Rp4.42 trillion, originated from the government's bond market, also known as Surat Berharga Negara (SBN). This significant withdrawal indicates shifting investor sentiment towards Indonesian assets.

Mixed Flows Across Different Markets

While the government bond market saw substantial outflows, other financial instruments experienced different trends. The Bank Indonesia's Rupiah Securities (SRBI) witnessed an outflow of Rp2.69 trillion. Conversely, the stock market attracted foreign capital, with Rp2.54 trillion flowing in during the same period. This mixed pattern across different asset classes suggests varied investor preferences in the Indonesian market.

Year-to-Date Foreign Investment Trends

As of November 6, 2025, foreign investors have recorded net sales of Rp39.13 trillion in the stock market, Rp0.91 trillion in SBN, and a significant Rp137.71 trillion in SRBI. These figures highlight the ongoing trend of foreign capital repatriation, particularly from fixed-income instruments.

Impact on Financial Indicators

The outflow of foreign capital has had noticeable effects on various financial indicators. The five-year Indonesia Credit Default Swap (CDS) premium rose to 75.49 basis points by November 6, 2025, up from 73.03 basis points on October 31, 2025. This increase suggests growing market perception of credit risk associated with Indonesian assets. Additionally, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) closed at Rp16,690 per USD on November 6, 2025. The yield on 10-year SBN rose to 6.17% before slightly decreasing to 6.15% the following trading day.

Market Implications

The substantial foreign capital outflow, particularly from the government bond market, reflects investor concerns about emerging market assets amid global economic uncertainties. The contrasting inflow into the stock market indicates that while some investors remain optimistic about Indonesia's equity prospects, overall risk sentiment remains cautious. The rising CDS premium and Rupiah exchange rate movements underscore the need for careful monitoring of capital flows and market sentiment.