Foreign Capital Outflow Hits Indonesian Markets

Significant Withdrawal in Short Period

Bank Indonesia reported a substantial foreign capital outflow of Rp7.71 trillion from Indonesia's financial markets between January 12-14, 2026. The withdrawal was primarily driven by net sales in government securities (SBN) and Bank Indonesia's Rupiah Securities (SRBI), amounting to Rp8.15 trillion and Rp2.64 trillion respectively. Conversely, there was a net purchase of Rp3.08 trillion in the equity market during the same period.

Year-to-Date Capital Flow Remains Positive

Despite the recent outflow, the year-to-date capital flow (January 1-14, 2026) remained positive, with a net inflow of Rp1.58 trillion. The breakdown shows net purchases of Rp6.61 trillion in equities and Rp5.33 trillion in SRBI, partially offset by net sales of Rp9.91 trillion in SBN.

Impact on Financial Indicators

The recent capital outflow had immediate effects on several financial indicators. Indonesia's 5-year credit default swap (CDS) premium increased to 71.43 basis points as of January 14, 2026, up from 69.31 basis points on January 9, 2026. Additionally, the yield on 10-year SBN rose to 6.23% on January 15, 2026, from 6.21% on January 14, 2026. In contrast, the yield on 10-year US Treasury Notes stood at 4.132% on January 14, 2026.

Currency Movement

The Indonesian Rupiah opened stronger at Rp16,840 per USD on January 15, 2026, compared to Rp16,855 per USD at the close of January 14, 2026. This appreciation suggests some positive sentiment towards the currency despite the capital outflow.

Bank Indonesia's Response

Bank Indonesia has reiterated its commitment to maintaining external stability through coordinated efforts with the government and relevant authorities. The central bank also plans to optimize its policy mix to support the country's economic resilience.