Key insights and market outlook
PT Freeport Indonesia's gold production is projected to drop to 26 tons in 2026, down from a previous projection of 45 tons, due to the material slide incident at Grasberg Block Cave (GBC) mine on September 8, 2025. The company is currently recovering operations, with GBC expected to resume full production by 2027. The incident has also impacted 2025 production, with copper sales projected at 537,000 tons, 70% of the original target 6
PT Freeport Indonesia's gold production is facing a significant reduction in 2026, with projections now standing at 26 tons, down from the initial estimate of 45 tons 5
The recovery process is currently underway, with production from Deep Mill Level Zone (DMLZ) and Big Gosan currently operating at 30% capacity. Freeport's management has prioritized the recovery of GBC, which is crucial for returning to normal production levels 2
Despite the current operational challenges, Freeport has announced the discovery of significant additional mineral resources at the Grasberg mine. The company has identified 3 billion tons of mineral resources, including copper, gold, and silver, though these are not yet classified as proven reserves 3
The incident has also affected Freeport's 2025 performance, with copper sales expected to reach only 537,000 tons, representing about 70% of the original target of 770,000 tons outlined in the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) for 2025 6
Freeport is also in discussions with the Indonesian government regarding a potential 12% increase in government shareholding by 2041. While there is currently an understanding in place, formal agreements are still pending 4
Mining Incident at GBC
Production Cut in 2026
Potential Government Stake Increase