Global Coal Market Faces Decline in 2025

Export Volumes and Market Dynamics

Global thermal coal exports are projected to experience a significant decline of 5% in 2025, reaching approximately 945 million metric tons ¹

. This marks the first annual decrease since 2020, primarily attributed to reduced coal-fired power generation in major Asian economies. China and India, being significant consumers of thermal coal, have shown decreased demand due to shifts in their energy consumption patterns and economic factors.

Price Movements and Market Sentiment

Coal prices have witnessed a notable drop, falling below $110 per ton in recent weeks ²

. This decline is largely influenced by weakening demand from China, a major driver of global coal consumption. According to market analysts, the price movement reflects broader changes in China's energy mix and ongoing economic adjustments. Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX International Berjangka, noted that the price decline below $110 per ton is a result of shifting supply and demand dynamics in the Chinese market ²

Source 2

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-batubara-turun-ke-bawah-us-110-per-ton-permintaan-china-melemah

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Implications for the Global Energy Market

The decline in global coal exports and prices has significant implications for the energy sector. It highlights a continuing shift towards cleaner energy sources and more diversified energy mixes, particularly in major economies. This trend is expected to have far-reaching effects on energy markets, potentially influencing future investment and consumption patterns.