Global Energy Commodity Market Faces Oversupply Challenges

Price Pressure Persists Across Major Commodities

The global energy commodity market is experiencing significant price pressure as we approach the end of 2025, primarily due to persistent oversupply conditions. The current market situation is characterized by declining prices across major energy commodities, with some variations in performance ¹

Crude Oil Market Dynamics

Crude oil prices, particularly WTI, have seen a substantial correction of 19.32% year-to-date, settling at US$57.863 per barrel. This decline is primarily attributed to the significant global supply surplus, estimated at around 4 million barrels per day by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The surplus is driven by increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries such as the United States, Guyana, and Brazil. On the demand side, factors such as China's economic slowdown and the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles are contributing to the pressure on fossil fuel consumption ¹

Coal Market Performance

The coal market has also experienced a downturn, with prices declining by 12.93% year-to-date to US$109.05 per ton. Similar to crude oil, coal prices are facing downward pressure due to the global oversupply situation and weakening demand in key consuming countries ¹

Natural Gas Outlook

In contrast to crude oil and coal, natural gas prices have shown relative resilience, recording a 4.82% year-to-date increase to US$3.80 per MMBtu. This positive performance is supported by seasonal demand factors and continued industrial consumption. However, it's worth noting that natural gas prices have faced a 22.32% monthly decline, indicating ongoing volatility in the market ¹

Market Expert Analysis

Wahyu Tribowo Laksono, Founder of Traderindo.com, highlights that the global supply surplus remains the primary challenge for energy commodities. He emphasizes that the combination of increased production from major producers and slowing demand growth due to economic and technological factors is creating a challenging environment for price recovery. Lukman Leong from Doo Financial Futures corroborates this view, noting that the oversupply situation is the main driver of the current price weakness in the crude oil market ¹