Global Energy Outlook: Oil Demand to Persist Through 2050

Conflicting Views on Energy Transition

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected in its World Energy Outlook 2025 that global oil and gas demand will continue to grow until 2050 ²

. This forecast contrasts with previous expectations of a rapid transition to cleaner energy sources. The IEA's projection was released amid new political pressure from the United States under the Donald Trump administration, which is advocating for expanded domestic oil and gas production.

OPEC's Supply Outlook for 2026

In a related development, OPEC has forecast that global oil supply will balance with demand by 2026 ¹

. This projection is based on expected increases in production from the OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC members, Russia, and other allies. OPEC maintained its estimate that global oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, with a slightly faster growth rate anticipated for 2026. The OPEC+ group plans to maintain its production restraint in the first quarter of 2026 due to potential supply surplus concerns.

Implications for Global Energy Markets

These projections from IEA and OPEC highlight the complex dynamics at play in global energy markets. While the IEA emphasizes continued demand growth for fossil fuels, OPEC's outlook suggests that supply adjustments will be necessary to maintain market equilibrium. The forecasts have significant implications for energy policy, investment decisions, and market expectations in the coming years.