Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The global gold price is projected to surge to US$5,000 per troy ounce in 2026, potentially reaching Rp3 million per gram in Indonesia ²

. Analysts attribute this forecast to strong global demand, geopolitical tensions, and potential interest rate cuts in the US. Experts recommend buying gold now as prices are expected to remain stable until year-end before rising in 2026.

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Gold Price Surge: A Signal of Global Economic Uncertainty

Rising to US$5,000: What's Driving the Forecast?

The global gold price is on track to reach US$5,000 per troy ounce in 2026, according to multiple expert predictions ²

. This forecast represents a significant increase from current levels and is driven by several key factors. Analyst Lukman Leong from Doo Financial Futures notes that the strong demand for gold is a primary driver, with the metal serving as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties and potential monetary policy shifts in major economies ².

Market Dynamics and Investment Implications

The price surge is not merely a short-term fluctuation but is supported by fundamental market dynamics. Zamroni Salim, Head of the Macroeconomic Research Center at BRIN, highlights that the recent sharp increase in gold prices reflects global market skepticism about the economic outlook for 2026 ¹

. This skepticism is further compounded by factors such as potential interest rate cuts in the US, which typically weaken the dollar and make gold more attractive.

Expert Insights and Market Predictions

Analysts from major financial institutions, including JP Morgan, Lehman Brothers, and Bank of America, have made similar predictions about gold reaching US$5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026 ²

. Ibrahim Assuaibi, a currency and commodity expert, suggests that this level could be achieved as early as the first quarter of 2026. The consensus among these experts underscores the growing confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset.

Investment Strategy Amidst Price Volatility

While the long-term forecast is bullish, experts advise that the price is likely to remain relatively stable until the end of 2025. Lukman Leong suggests that investors should consider buying gold now, as the significant price increases are expected to occur in 2026. This strategy allows investors to capitalize on the anticipated price surge without facing immediate market volatility.

References