Gold Price Forecast: Rp2.7 Million/gram by End 2025

Geopolitical Tensions and Dollar Weakness Drive Gold Prices

Gold prices are expected to surge to Rp2.7 million per gram by year-end 2025, according to commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi. The prediction is based on two primary factors: escalating geopolitical tensions and a declining US dollar index ¹

Geopolitical Factors

Assuaibi highlights heightened geopolitical tensions in various regions, including:

• America-Latin conflict: Tensions between the US and Venezuela over oil production
• Africa conflict: US military actions against militant groups controlling oil resources in Nigeria
• Europe conflict: Potential peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

These conflicts contribute to market uncertainty, driving investors to safe-haven assets like gold. The situation in Venezuela is particularly significant as it's a major oil producer, with 1.1 million barrels per day ¹

Economic Factors

The second key factor is the weakening US dollar index, caused by:

1. Weakening US economic data
2. Declining inflation rates
3. Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026

Markets are optimistic that The Fed will continue to lower interest rates, further supporting gold prices. This optimism is partly driven by potential political changes in the US, including the upcoming Fed chair transition in April 2026 ¹

Price Projections for Year-End

For the remaining trading days of 2025, Assuaibi predicts:

• Support levels: US$4,509/oz (Rp2.6 million/gram) and US$4,487/oz (Rp2.57 million/gram)
• Resistance levels: US$4,550/oz (Rp2.65 million/gram) and US$4,570-4,600/oz