Gold Market Dynamics Shift as US Economic Data Approaches

Price Movements Reflect Monetary Policy Expectations

Gold prices demonstrated significant sensitivity to upcoming US economic data releases on Tuesday (16/12/2025), with spot gold fluctuating between US$4,289.17 and US$4,316.67 per ounce ¹

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Source 3

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-emas-naik-usai-data-ketenagakerjaan-as-memicu-harapan-pemangkasan-suku-bunga

. The price movements were primarily driven by market expectations regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026 ²

Source 2

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-emas-spot-naik-tipis-ke-us43049-pada-selasa-1612-pagi

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Source 3

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-emas-naik-usai-data-ketenagakerjaan-as-memicu-harapan-pemangkasan-suku-bunga

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Market Reaction to US Employment Data

The release of US employment data showing an increase in unemployment rates strengthened market expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve ³

. This development led to a 0.4% increase in spot gold prices to US$4,316.67 per ounce ³

Source 3

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-emas-naik-usai-data-ketenagakerjaan-as-memicu-harapan-pemangkasan-suku-bunga

, as weaker US economic indicators typically boost safe-haven asset demand.

Dollar Index and Gold Price Correlation

The US dollar index experienced a decline to its lowest level in two months, making gold more affordable for international buyers and contributing to the price increase ³

. Concurrently, US Treasury yields also decreased, further supporting gold's attractiveness as an investment asset.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

Market participants are closely watching whether gold can break through its previous high of around US$4,380 per ounce from mid-October ¹

. The ability to surpass this level could indicate continued momentum in the precious metal's price, while failure to do so might signal a potential consolidation phase.