Indonesian Stock Market Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities

Potential for IHSG to Reach 10,000

The Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) is showing positive momentum entering 2026, with Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa projecting it could reach 10,000 ¹

. INDEF's Head of Macroeconomics and Finance, Muhammad Rizal Taufikurahman, considers this theoretically possible but challenging due to global uncertainties. The IHSG started 2026 on a positive note, closing at 8,748.13 on January 2, 2026, up 1.17% ³

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https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-berpeluang-menguat-lagi-pada-senin-512026-ini-rekomendasi-sahamnya

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Conditions for Reaching 10,000 Level

Rizal emphasized that achieving the 10,000 level requires three key factors: strong corporate earnings growth, reduced risk premium, and stable institutional fund flows ¹

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Source 2

https://aktual.kontan.co.id/news/peringatan-indef-jalan-ke-ihsg-10000-penuh-guncangan-global

. The current global environment is marked by heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Venezuela, which could trigger risk-off sentiment among global investors ¹

Source 1

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/prediksi-ihsg-10000-indef-soroti-dampak-geopolitik-pada-arus-modal-asing

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Source 4

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-awal-januari-bergerak-fluktuatif-di-tengah-bayang-bayang-geopolitik

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Technical Analysis and Market Movement

Market analysts see potential for further IHSG strengthening. William Hartanto of WH-Project notes that the IHSG has formed a bullish flag pattern, indicating potential for continued gains and possibly reaching new all-time highs ³

. The key resistance level is at 8,800, while support lies between 8,642-8,672 ⁴

Source 4

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-awal-januari-bergerak-fluktuatif-di-tengah-bayang-bayang-geopolitik

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Impact of Geopolitical Tensions

Escalating US-Venezuela tensions over oil reserves could lead to increased global market volatility and potentially trigger capital outflows from emerging markets like Indonesia ¹

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Source 4

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-awal-januari-bergerak-fluktuatif-di-tengah-bayang-bayang-geopolitik

. This geopolitical risk is a major concern for foreign capital flows and currency stability in Indonesia.

Market Outlook for Early 2026

Despite potential short-term volatility, analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic view. The IHSG is seen as having potential to continue its upward trend if it maintains support levels ³

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Source 4

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-awal-januari-bergerak-fluktuatif-di-tengah-bayang-bayang-geopolitik

. The combination of technical factors and fundamental conditions will be crucial in determining the index's trajectory in 2026.