Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Major Indonesian banking stocks experienced significant gains on December 15, 2025, with BBNI rising 4.72% to Rp4,440, BBRI up 4.13% to Rp3,780, BBCA increasing 3.75% to Rp8,300, and BMRI gaining 3.53% to Rp4,990. The surge is attributed to potential Santa Claus Rally phenomenon and upcoming BI rate announcement ¹

. Analysts expect 2-5% potential IHSG growth if rally continues, driven by global rate cuts and domestic stability ⁴.

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Banking Stocks Lead Gains on Potential Santa Claus Rally

Market Overview

Major Indonesian banking stocks experienced significant gains on December 15, 2025, with PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) leading the charge by rising 4.72% to Rp4,440 per share. Other major banks also saw substantial increases: PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) was up 4.13% to Rp3,780, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) rose 3.75% to Rp8,300, and PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) gained 3.53% to Rp4,990 ¹

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Factors Driving the Rally

The surge in banking stocks is primarily attributed to the potential Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, a seasonal pattern where stock markets tend to perform well in the last week of December and first days of January. Analysts believe this trend could be supported by several factors:

Global Interest Rate Cuts: The ongoing trend of global monetary easing is expected to drive capital flows into emerging markets like Indonesia ²
Source 2
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/peluang-ihsg-naik-dalam-santa-claus-rally-masih-terbuka-cek-rekomendasi-sahamnya
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Domestic Stability: Indonesia's controlled inflation within Bank Indonesia's target range creates room for accommodative monetary policy ³
Source 3
https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251215/90/1936935/ada-potensi-santa-claus-rally-saham-perbankan-bakal-bangkit-di-akhir-tahun
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Window Dressing: Institutional investors' portfolio adjustments and window dressing activities typically increase at year-end ³
Source 3
https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251215/90/1936935/ada-potensi-santa-claus-rally-saham-perbankan-bakal-bangkit-di-akhir-tahun
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Analyst Insights

Senior Equity Research from Kiwoom Sekuritas, Sukarno Alatas, noted that while the Santa Claus Rally is possible, its sustainability depends heavily on consistent foreign net inflows ⁴

. Indri Liftiany from PT Indo Premier Sekuritas added that the trend of declining interest rates could support continued capital flow into the stock market ².

Sector Outlook

The banking sector is particularly well-positioned for potential gains due to:

Increased Consumer Activity: Year-end festivities typically boost consumption, benefiting banks ³
Source 3
https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251215/90/1936935/ada-potensi-santa-claus-rally-saham-perbankan-bakal-bangkit-di-akhir-tahun
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Large Cap Appeal: Banking stocks are major index components, attracting institutional investors ⁴
Source 4
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/santa-claus-rally-berpeluang-mengangkat-ihsg-2-5-ini-kuncinya
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Growth Potential: With IHSG potentially rising 2-5% during the rally, banking stocks are expected to lead the gains ⁴
Source 4
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/santa-claus-rally-berpeluang-mengangkat-ihsg-2-5-ini-kuncinya
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