Indonesian Banking Sector Sees Accelerated Credit Growth in 2026

Economic Recovery and Liquidity Drive Credit Expansion

The Indonesian banking sector is poised for more aggressive credit disbursement in 2026, supported by the ongoing economic recovery and accommodative fiscal policies. According to Myrdal Gunarto, Global Market Economist at Maybank Indonesia, credit growth is expected to reach 9% YoY in 2026, up from an estimated 8.15% YoY in 2025.

Key Factors Supporting Credit Growth

1. Government Injection into State-Owned Banks: The government's recent injection of Rp276 trillion into state-owned banks is expected to improve liquidity conditions, creating a more favorable environment for credit expansion.
2. Potential BI Rate Cuts: Anticipated rate cuts by Bank Indonesia could lead to lower deposit and lending rates, stimulating demand for new credit.
3. Fiscal Policy Support: The absence of tax hikes, such as VAT or excise duties, is expected to maintain consumption stability and support economic activity.
4. Improved Consumer Demand: Increased consumer spending, particularly during Ramadan and Eid periods, is likely to drive credit growth.

Banking Sector Response

Major banks are positioning themselves for the expected credit growth. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) has reported credit disbursement reaching Rp923 trillion by October 2025, growing 7.6% YoY. The bank targets credit growth between 6-8% for the full year 2025. Hana Bank has also seen robust credit growth, with loans reaching Rp40.07 trillion by end-Q3 2025, a 13.90% YoY increase.

Challenges and Opportunities

While the outlook is positive, banks still face challenges, including undisbursed loans amounting to Rp2,450.7 trillion as of October 2025. Businesses remain cautious, with many adopting a 'wait and see' approach. Nonetheless, improved liquidity and potential rate cuts are expected to create opportunities for banks to expand their lending activities in 2026.