Indonesian Banks Maintain Optimism for Q1 2026 Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Positive Economic Outlook

Despite global economic dynamics that demand caution, Indonesian banks remain optimistic about the first quarter of 2026. Arief Setyahadi, CEO of Bank BJB Syariah, gave an optimism score of 4 out of 5 based on macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal policy directions in the 2026 State Budget Plan (RAPBN) ¹

. Similarly, Yuli Melati Suryaningrum, President Director of BCA Syariah, views Indonesia's macroeconomic conditions as relatively solid in Q1 2026, supported by strong domestic fundamentals ²

Source 2

https://keuangan.kontan.co.id/news/waspadai-ketidakpastian-global-bos-bca-syariah-optimistis-hadapi-kuartal-i-2026

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Key Economic Indicators

Several positive indicators are supporting the banks' optimism:

• Manufacturing PMI remaining in expansion territory
• Controlled inflation rates
• Strong domestic consumption patterns
• Increasing consumer confidence index

Strategic Focus for Q1 2026

Banks are adjusting their business strategies to align with government policies and regulatory directions. Key focus areas include:

1. Strengthening funding and financing quality
2. Improving operational efficiency
3. Selective service development
4. Maintaining prudence in business expansion

Fiscal Policy Assessment

While the expansive fiscal policy, including the placement of Rp200 trillion from the Budget Surplus (SAL) in state-owned banks, is noted, its impact is seen as gradual and indirect. The banks are monitoring these developments while maintaining a cautious approach to future dynamics ²

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