Indonesian Banking Sector Shows Resilience in Q4 2025

Optimism Driven by Credit Growth Expectations

The Indonesian banking sector is demonstrating strong optimism for Q4 2025, according to the latest OJK Banking Business Orientation Survey (SBPO). Conducted in October 2025 among 102 banks representing 99.25% of total banking assets, the survey reveals that banks are confident about their performance for the remainder of the year ¹

Key Drivers of Banking Optimism

1. Manufacturing Sector Growth: The manufacturing sector, which grew by 8.64% YoY as of September 2025, is expected to be a major driver of credit growth ¹
   Source 1

   https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251122/90/1930820/survei-ojk-ungkap-keyakinan-bankir-terhadap-kinerja-akhir-tahun-begini-hasilnya
   .
2. Mining and Transportation Sectors: These sectors showed significant growth rates of 19.15% and 19.32% respectively, contributing to overall banking optimism ¹
   Source 1

   https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251122/90/1930820/survei-ojk-ungkap-keyakinan-bankir-terhadap-kinerja-akhir-tahun-begini-hasilnya
   .
3. Macroeconomic Stability: Expectations of improving domestic macroeconomic conditions, supported by lower BI rates and a strengthening Rupiah, are boosting bankers' confidence ³
   Source 3

   https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251122/90/1930830/industri-pengolahan-hingga-pengangkutan-jadi-sektor-penggerak-kredit-bank
   .
4. Government Stimulus: The government's 8+4+5 stimulus package is anticipated to enhance consumer purchasing power and drive economic growth ³
   Source 3

   https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251122/90/1930830/industri-pengolahan-hingga-pengangkutan-jadi-sektor-penggerak-kredit-bank
   .

Bank Mandiri's Liquidity and Performance

PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) is expected to experience improved liquidity through 2026, driven by decreasing funding costs and credit growth supported by deposit increases. Analysts project that Mandiri's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) will reach 90% by year-end, down from 94% in Q3 2025 ²

Financial Highlights for Bank Mandiri

• Credit growth remained strong at 11% YoY as of Q3 2025
• Net interest income rose 10.5% YoY to Rp122.3 trillion
• Net profit declined 10.2% YoY to Rp37.73 trillion due to higher interest expenses and operating costs
• The bank is expected to benefit from the government's Rp200 trillion liquidity injection into state-owned banks, with BMRI receiving Rp55 trillion ²
  Source 2

  https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251122/90/1930827/proyeksi-terbaru-soal-likuiditas-bank-mandiri-bmri

Challenges and Opportunities

While banks are optimistic, they face challenges such as potential inflationary pressures from increased economic activity and consumption during the year-end period. The net cash flow of banks is expected to decrease, although cash outflows will rise due to increased operational needs and government spending ³