Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Major Indonesian banks' stocks declined on the first trading day of 2026, despite the Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) closing up 1.27% to 8,859.19 ¹

. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI), and PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) saw significant foreign sell-offs and stock price drops, while only PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA) managed to close higher. Analysts see potential rebound opportunities as valuations become more attractive following 2025 corrections.

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Banking Stocks Under Pressure at 2026 Start

Major Banks See Significant Declines

The first trading day of 2026 saw major Indonesian banking stocks under significant pressure despite the overall market showing positive momentum. The Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) closed up 1.27% at 8,859.19 ¹

, while major bank stocks mostly declined. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) saw its shares drop 0.27% to Rp3,630 with foreign investors net selling Rp134.78 billion worth of shares ¹. Similarly, PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI) experienced a 0.49% decline to Rp5,050 with foreign net sell-offs amounting to Rp51.16 billion ¹.

Mixed Performance Among Big Banks

The decline was widespread among major banks, with PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) shares falling 0.70% to Rp4,230 accompanied by Rp23.65 billion in foreign net selling ¹

. In contrast, PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA) bucked the trend by rising 0.62% to Rp8,075, remaining the sole bright spot among the major banking stocks ². Year-to-date, BMRI has corrected 1.46% while BBNI has seen a 2.53% decline, with BBRI down 0.82% ².

Analyst Outlook and Recommendations

Despite the short-term pressure, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects. Miftahul Khaer from Kiwoom Sekuritas believes that the 2025 corrections have made valuations more attractive, particularly for banks with strong asset quality and stable profitability ²

. The analyst suggests that a combination of more accommodative monetary policy, normalization of funding costs, improvement in net interest margins, and better quality credit growth could drive a rebound in banking stocks ². For BBRI, analysts from Danareksa Sekuritas recommend using a 'buy on weakness' strategy, waiting for confirmation of rebound near the 3,580-3,600 support level ³.

Market Context and Future Prospects

The current decline in banking stocks continues the trend from 2025, with investors likely cautious about global interest rate dynamics and liquidity conditions ²

. However, the fundamental strength of Indonesian banks, particularly their ability to navigate challenging conditions, provides a basis for potential recovery. As Miftahul Khaer noted, "the valuations of big banks after the 2025 correction have become more attractive historically" ², suggesting that current levels might present buying opportunities for long-term investors.

References