Indonesian CPO Reference Price Drops in January 2026

Production Surge Outpaces Demand Growth

The Indonesian Ministry of Trade has announced that the reference price (HR) for crude palm oil (CPO) for January 2026 has been set at $915.64 per metric ton, representing a decrease of $10.51 per MT or 1.13% from the December 2025 HR of $926.14 per MT. According to Acting Director General of Foreign Trade Tommy Andana, this decline is primarily attributed to increased CPO production, particularly from Malaysia, which was not accompanied by a corresponding increase in demand. Additionally, the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit against the US dollar contributed to the price drop.

Price Determination Methodology

The HR CPO is calculated based on the average prices from three sources during the period of 20 November to 19 December 2025: the Indonesian CPO futures exchange ($853.13 per MT), the Malaysian CPO futures exchange ($978.14 per MT), and the Rotterdam CPO spot price ($1,187.25 per MT). As per Minister of Trade Regulation Number 35 of 2025, when the difference between these three prices exceeds $40, the HR is determined by averaging the two prices closest to the median value.