Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The Indonesian economy is projected to remain resilient in Q1 2026, with expected growth of 5.28% ⁶

. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is forecasted to continue its upward trend, with potential to reach 10,000 by end-2026 ⁵. Major banks like BSI show strong financial performance with 9.04% net profit growth ⁶.

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Economy and Stock Market Outlook for 2026

Economic Growth Projections

The Indonesian economy is expected to maintain its resilience in Q1 2026, with projected growth of 5.28% ⁶

. This optimism is supported by strong household consumption, increasing investment, and expansive government fiscal policy ⁶. The finance minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, is confident that the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) will continue its upward trend and potentially reach 10,000 by the end of 2026 ⁵.

Banking Sector Performance

Major Indonesian banks have shown robust performance in 2025. PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk (BSI) recorded a 9.04% year-on-year growth in net profit to Rp5.57 trillion by September 2025 ⁶

. This growth was supported by a 12.65% increase in financing disbursement to Rp301 trillion and a 15.65% rise in third-party funds to Rp348.38 trillion ⁶. The banking sector is expected to continue its positive trajectory into 2026.

Stock Market Analysis

The IHSG closed 2025 with a slight increase of 0.031% to 8,646.94 ¹

. Technical analysis indicates that the index is still in a consolidation phase, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing negative signals but stochastic indicators turning positive ¹. Market analysts suggest that if the IHSG breaks through the 8,700 level, it could confirm a bullish continuation pattern ⁴.

Outlook for 2026

The overall outlook for the Indonesian economy and stock market in 2026 appears positive. With strong economic fundamentals, improving banking sector performance, and favorable market conditions, both domestic and international investors are likely to maintain their interest in the Indonesian market.

References