Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The Indonesian government implemented various stimulus measures during the 2025/2026 Nataru period, including train ticket discounts of up to 30% and shipping discounts of 20% ¹

. These initiatives contributed to increased consumer spending, with the government targeting Rp 110 trillion in transactions during the period ³. The measures resulted in significant economic activity, with an estimated 119.5 million people mobilized and Rp 107.5 trillion in monetary circulation ⁶.

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Economy Shows Resilience During 2025/2026 Nataru Period

Government Stimulus Measures

The Indonesian government implemented comprehensive stimulus packages during the 2025/2026 Nataru period to boost economic activity. Key measures included train ticket discounts of up to 30% from December 22 to January 10 ¹

. The transportation stimulus also extended to the maritime sector, with 20% discounts on shipping tickets through state-owned PT Pelni, backed by a budget allocation of Rp 24.8 trillion ¹.

Consumer Spending and Retail Activity

The stimulus measures successfully encouraged consumer spending, with various sectors reporting increased activity. The government targeted Rp 110 trillion in total transactions during the Nataru period, comprising multiple promotional programs such as Hari Belanja Nasional (Harbolnas) and "Belanja di Indonesia Saja" ³

. Retail activity showed positive momentum, with mall traffic increasing since December 25, 2025, although the growth varied across regions ⁴.

Economic Impact and Projections

The Nataru period is expected to have a significant economic impact, with the Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo) estimating Rp 107.5 trillion in monetary circulation during the holiday period ⁶

. The increased mobility of an estimated 119.5 million people is seen as a positive indicator for consumption-driven growth ⁶. Economist Yusuf Rendy Manilet noted that while the Nataru period provides a temporary boost, particularly in Q4 2025, its long-term impact remains limited ⁵.

Sectoral Performance

The transportation sector saw significant activity, with over 1 million people benefiting from train ticket discounts by December 26, 2025 ¹

. The maritime sector also reported substantial participation, with 67.4% of the Rp 24.8 trillion budget realized by the same date ¹. Retailers adapted to changing consumer behavior, with a trend towards purchasing more affordable products ².

References