Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Indonesia's 10-year government bond yield has dropped to 6.11% as of November 2025, below the 2025 budget assumption of 7% ¹

. Meanwhile, foreign investors have been pulling out from SBN market, with net sales reaching Rp 6.33 trillion in mid-November 2025, more than double the previous week's Rp 2.69 trillion ².

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Government Bonds Yield Hits Record Low Amid Foreign Capital Outflow

Significant Yield Reduction

Indonesia's 10-year government bond yield has dropped to 6.11% as of November 2025, according to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani's successor, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa ¹

. This level is significantly lower than the 7% assumption in the 2025 state budget and last year's 7% yield ¹. The minister described this yield as "very low for Indonesia," indicating a positive development for the government's borrowing costs.

Foreign Investor Exodus from SBN Market

Contrasting with the positive yield development for the government, foreign investors have been pulling out from the SBN (Surat Berharga Negara) market ²

. Bank Indonesia data shows that during 10-13 November 2025, foreign investors recorded net sales of Rp 6.33 trillion in the government bond market ². This figure represents a significant increase compared to the previous week (3-6 November 2025), where net sales were Rp 2.69 trillion ². The total foreign capital outflow from Indonesia's financial markets since the beginning of 2025 has reached Rp 34.68 trillion ².

Market Implications

The simultaneous occurrence of decreasing yields and foreign investor withdrawal creates an interesting dynamic in Indonesia's financial markets. While lower yields reduce government borrowing costs, the significant foreign capital outflow indicates potential concerns about future market stability or more attractive opportunities elsewhere. The total foreign withdrawal from both SBN and Bank Indonesia's SRBI (Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia) reached Rp 3.79 trillion in the second week of November 2025 ²

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References