Indonesian Inflation Projected to Moderate in November 2025

Economic Consensus and Projections

Economists are projecting a moderation in Indonesia's inflation rate for November 2025. According to a consensus of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the median forecast for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 0.20% month-on-month (MtM). This represents a decrease from October 2025's inflation rate of 0.28% (MtM). On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the median projection from 25 economists is 2.74%, down from 2.86% in October 2025.

Factors Influencing Inflation

The projected decline in inflation is primarily attributed to the normalization of gold prices, which had surged in previous months. Josua Pardede, Chief Economist at Bank Permata (BNLI), noted that the surge in core inflation in October was largely driven by gold price increases, but this effect is expected to dissipate in November. Additionally, improved supply conditions and government stabilization programs have contributed to deflation in rice prices, helping to moderate overall inflation.

Varied Forecasts from Economists

Different economists have provided varying forecasts based on their analysis of different factors. Hosianna Evalita Situmorang from Bank Danamon (BDMN) provided the highest estimate at 0.29% (MtM), while Krystal Tan from Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd gave the lowest at 0.10% (MtM). On a yearly basis, Adam Ahmad Samdin of Oxford Economics Ltd forecasted the highest inflation at 2.9%, while Goldman Sachs & Co LLC predicted the lowest at 2.60%.

Bank-specific Projections

Andry Asmoro, Chief Economist at Bank Mandiri (BMRI), projected that overall inflation will be at 0.2% MoM in November 2025, down from 0.3% in the previous month. He noted that volatile food prices are expected to soften further due to continued deflation in main food commodities such as rice (-1.2%), chicken (-0.9%), garlic (-0.8%), and shallots (-1.2%). Asmoro also highlighted a sharp correction in cayenne pepper prices by -8.5%, contributing to low volatile food inflation.

Demand and Administered Prices

Despite easing price pressures, Asmoro noted some demand-driven pressure, reflected in the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI), which rose 6.2% (MtM) at the start of Q4/2025. Administered prices are projected to increase slightly due to higher air transport tariffs towards the end of the year and increases in non-subsidized fuel prices.

Conclusion

The overall picture is that inflation remains positive but with easing price pressures. The moderation in inflation is a positive sign for the Indonesian economy, indicating that stabilization efforts and improved supply conditions are having an impact. However, continued monitoring is necessary as demand-driven pressures and administered price changes could influence future inflation trends.