Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Bank Indonesia's retail sales index is projected to grow 4.4% year-on-year in December 2025, down from 6.3% in November 2025 ¹

². Despite the annual slowdown, retail sales are expected to rise 4.0% month-to-month in December, significantly higher than November's 1.5% monthly growth ¹. The increase is attributed to stronger demand during the Christmas and New Year period, as well as smoother distribution channels ².

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Retail Sales Show Mixed Performance in December 2025

Annual Growth Slows While Monthly Sales Surge

Bank Indonesia's retail sales index for December 2025 is projected to grow 4.4% year-on-year, marking a slowdown from November 2025's growth rate of 6.3% ¹

². Despite this annual decline, retail sales are expected to show a significant monthly increase of 4.0%, up from November's 1.5% monthly growth ¹.

Factors Driving Monthly Growth

The substantial monthly increase in December is primarily attributed to heightened consumer spending during the Christmas and New Year period. According to Josua Pardede, Chief Economist at Bank Permata, the change in growth rates indicates a shift in spending patterns and distribution ²

. The improved distribution channels also played a crucial role in boosting sales during this period.

Sectoral Performance

The growth in retail sales is supported by various categories, including spare parts and accessories, food, beverages, and tobacco products, as well as cultural and recreational goods, and fuel for motor vehicles ¹

.

Economic Implications

The mixed performance in retail sales reflects both the challenges and opportunities in Indonesia's consumer sector. While the annual growth slowdown indicates potential economic cooling, the strong monthly increase suggests resilience in consumer spending during peak seasons.

References