Indonesian Retail Sector Analysis: Challenges and Opportunities

Weak Consumer Spending Impacts 2025 Performance

The Indonesian retail sector faced significant challenges in 2025, primarily due to weak consumer spending and high operational costs ¹

. The government's budget rationalization of Rp 306.7 trillion and temporary expenditure freeze further constrained consumption, delaying the recovery of retail demand ¹

Source 1

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/belanja-pemerintah-bisa-jadi-katalis-simak-rekomendasi-saham-sektor-ritel

.

Government Spending: A Catalyst for 2026 Recovery

Analysts predict that government spending will be a key driver of demand in 2026, potentially boosting the retail sector ²

. This anticipated increase in government expenditure is expected to strengthen household incomes, particularly for lower and middle-income households, which are the primary customer base for most retailers.

Retail Stocks with Growth Potential

1. PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT): Despite a less-than-satisfactory Q3 2025 performance, with a 29% yoy decline in net profit to Rp 431 billion, AMRT is expected to benefit from its increasing market share in general trade and larger store formats ²

   Source 2

   https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/dibayangi-sentimen-daya-beli-cek-rekomendasi-saham-emiten-sektor-ritel
   . Analysts from JP Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia recommend AMRT with an 'Overweight' rating and a target price of Rp 2,820.

2. PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk (ACES): ACES reported indicative sales of Rp 681 billion in October 2025, bringing total sales for the first ten months to Rp 7 trillion ²

   Source 2

   https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/dibayangi-sentimen-daya-beli-cek-rekomendasi-saham-emiten-sektor-ritel
   . Despite weak SSSG growth, the introduction of new store formats like NEKA is expected to drive future growth. Sucor Sekuritas recommends ACES with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rp 620.

3. PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPI): MAPI recorded an 8.8% yoy growth in net revenue to Rp 30 trillion for the first nine months of 2025, with EBITDA reaching Rp 3.4 trillion ²

   Source 2

   https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/dibayangi-sentimen-daya-beli-cek-rekomendasi-saham-emiten-sektor-ritel
   . OCBC Sekuritas recommends MAPI with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rp 1,800.

4. PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI): MIDI reported a 26.53% yoy increase in net profit to Rp 590.72 billion in Q3 2025, driven by a 4% yoy rise in revenue to Rp 15.27 trillion ²

   Source 2

   https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/dibayangi-sentimen-daya-beli-cek-rekomendasi-saham-emiten-sektor-ritel
   . BRI Danareksa Sekuritas recommends MIDI with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rp 550.

Conclusion

While the Indonesian retail sector faced significant challenges in 2025, the anticipated increase in government spending in 2026 is expected to provide a much-needed boost. Retailers with strong growth strategies and market positioning, such as AMRT, ACES, MAPI, and MIDI, are well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity.