Key insights and market outlook
Indonesian retail companies are optimistic about increased sales during the Christmas 2025 and New Year 2026 (Nataru) period. The optimism is supported by retail sales growth and government stimulus that boosts consumer purchasing power. Bank Indonesia's retail sales survey recorded 4.3% year-on-year growth and 0.6% month-on-month growth in October 2025.
The Indonesian retail industry is showing strong optimism heading into the Christmas 2025 and New Year 2026 (Nataru) period. This positive outlook is driven by the ongoing recovery in retail sales and supported by government stimulus measures that have enhanced consumer purchasing power. According to Bank Indonesia's retail sales survey for October 2025, the sector recorded a 4.3% year-on-year growth and a 0.6% month-on-month increase.
Yusuf Rendy Manilet, an economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, noted that the Nataru period has historically been a significant driver of consumption in the fourth quarter. The combination of seasonal demand and government support has created a favorable environment for retailers. The momentum is expected to continue through the end of the year, providing a much-needed boost to the retail sector.
Retail Sales Growth in Nataru Period
Government Stimulus for Consumer Spending