Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The Indonesian rupiah continued its weakening trend against the US dollar on Thursday (8/1/2026), closing at Rp16,798 per USD, representing a 0.11% decline ¹

². The currency reached its weakest level since April 2025, with the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) also depreciating to Rp16,801 per USD ⁶. Analysts attribute the pressure to both domestic demand for dollars and global investor profit-taking, despite Indonesia's relatively solid fundamentals ².

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Rupiah Extends Weakness Against US Dollar

Continued Depreciation in Early 2026

The Indonesian rupiah maintained its downward trajectory against the US dollar during Thursday's (8/1/2026) trading session, closing at Rp16,798 per USD, marking a 0.11% daily depreciation ¹

. This performance represents the currency's weakest level since April 2025, continuing the pressure observed in early 2026 ².

Market Dynamics and Contributing Factors

The rupiah's decline was not an isolated event in the regional currency market. Most Asian currencies experienced weakening against the US dollar during the same period ¹

⁴. The Taiwan dollar led the decline with a 0.27% drop, followed by the Malaysian ringgit (0.19%) and Korean won (0.13%) ¹. Analysts point to both domestic factors, such as increased demand for US dollars in the local market, and global factors, including profit-taking by international investors, as key drivers of the rupiah's depreciation ².

Expert Projections for Q1 2026

Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX Internasional Berjangka, projects that the rupiah will likely remain under pressure during the first quarter of 2026, with potential for stabilization amidst global challenges ³

. The currency's movement is expected to be influenced by both domestic economic fundamentals and external factors, particularly the strength of the US dollar ².

Technical and Fundamental Analysis

The JISDOR rate, which is considered a benchmark for the rupiah's value, also recorded a similar decline, settling at Rp16,801 per USD, a 0.09% depreciation ⁶

. Despite Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves increasing to $156 billion by December 2025, up from $150 billion in November 2025, the news failed to provide significant support for the rupiah's value ⁶.

References