Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The Indonesian rupiah is projected to remain under pressure in 2026 due to global economic uncertainties and domestic fiscal challenges. Despite the US dollar index (DXY) weakening to 98, rupiah strengthening is constrained by fiscal risks, declining tax revenues, and increasing government debt burden ⁶

. Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 4.75% in December 2025, signaling potential further easing in 2026 contingent on inflation developments ⁴.

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Rupiah Faces Continued Pressure in 2026

Global and Domestic Factors Constrain Rupiah Strength

The Indonesian rupiah is expected to remain under pressure in 2026 due to a combination of global economic uncertainties and domestic fiscal challenges. Despite the US dollar index (DXY) weakening to around 98, the rupiah has struggled to gain significant ground ⁶

.

Domestic Fiscal Challenges

Several domestic factors are contributing to the rupiah's weakness:

Fiscal risks: Increasing government debt burden
Declining tax revenues: Weaker-than-expected tax collection
Government expenditure pressures: Rising debt servicing costs

Monetary Policy Stance

Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 4.75% in December 2025, signaling potential further monetary easing in 2026 contingent on inflation developments ⁴

. This decision reflects the central bank's balanced approach between supporting economic growth and managing currency stability.

Market Performance and Outlook

As of December 29, 2025:

Rupiah traded at Rp16,783 per USD, weakening 0.23%
Major banks' USD exchange rates varied:
- BCA: Rp16,773 - Rp16,793 (e-rate)
- BRI: Rp16,768 - Rp16,795 (e-rate)
- Mandiri: Rp16,760 - Rp16,790 (special rate)
- BNI: Rp16,769 - Rp16,799 (special rate)