Indonesian Rupiah Shows Mixed Signals Ahead of 2026

Currency Volatility Expected in Year-End Trading

The Indonesian rupiah is likely to experience continued volatility during the remaining trading days of 2025. As of Friday, December 26, 2025, the rupiah closed at Rp16,745 per USD, representing a slight depreciation of 0.02% ²

Factors Influencing Rupiah Movement

1. US Dollar Rebound: The US dollar's recent rebound, triggered by better-than-expected US job data, has put pressure on the rupiah ²
   Source 2

   https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/cek-proyeksi-rupiah-di-akhir-2025-begini-sentimennya
   .
2. US Economic Growth: The strong Q3-2025 US GDP growth of 4.3% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 3.3%, is likely to influence the rupiah's trajectory ³
   Source 3

   https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/efek-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-as-cermati-proyeksi-rupiah-pada-perdagangan-senin-2912
   .
3. Dollar Index Forecast: Currency analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicts that the dollar index may weaken to 97.57 by the year's end, potentially supporting the rupiah ¹
   Source 1

   https://finance.detik.com/bursa-dan-valas/d-8280999/terungkap-penyebab-dolar-as-kurang-bertenaga-jelang-tahun-baru
   .
4. Technical Levels: Assuaibi notes that the dollar index has a support level at 97.579 and resistance at 98.398 for the period ¹
   Source 1

   https://finance.detik.com/bursa-dan-valas/d-8280999/terungkap-penyebab-dolar-as-kurang-bertenaga-jelang-tahun-baru
   .

Market Outlook for Early 2026

As the market heads into the new year, several factors will be crucial in determining the rupiah's direction:

• Further US economic data releases
• Global market sentiment
• Domestic economic indicators
• Central bank interventions

The combination of these factors will likely continue to create a challenging environment for currency forecasting in the short term.