Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The Indonesian rupiah continued its decline against the US dollar for the fifth consecutive day, closing at Rp16,780 per USD, a 0.13% drop ¹

. Analysts attribute the weakening rupiah to global dollar strengthening and mixed signals from Fed officials regarding future interest rate decisions ¹⁵. The currency's performance was also influenced by Indonesia's trade data showing significant export decline and stagnant imports ³.

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Rupiah Extends Weakness Against US Dollar

Fifth Consecutive Day of Decline

The Indonesian rupiah continued its downward trend against the US dollar for the fifth consecutive day, closing at Rp16,780 per USD on January 7, 2026 ¹

. This represents a 0.13% depreciation from the previous day's close of Rp16,758. The rupiah's decline was consistent with the performance of other Asian currencies, with the currency experiencing its deepest fall in the region at 0.14% ⁴.

Factors Influencing Rupiah's Performance

Several factors contributed to the rupiah's weakness:

Global Dollar Strengthening: The US dollar index showed resilience, maintaining its strength against major currencies ⁶
Source 6
https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20260107/90/1942304/kurs-bca-bri-bank-mandiri-dan-bni-hari-ini-71-saat-rupiah-dibuka-melemah
.
Mixed Signals from Fed Officials: Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials provided mixed guidance on future interest rate decisions, creating uncertainty in currency markets ¹
Source 1
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-masih-sulit-menguat-cek-proyeksinya-untuk-kamis-712026
.
Indonesia's Trade Data: The country's trade performance revealed a significant decline in exports and stagnant imports, further pressuring the rupiah ³
Source 3
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-melemah-rabu-71-siang-investor-menghindar-jelang-rilis-data-ekonomi-as
.
Global Economic Concerns: The US manufacturing PMI for December 2025 came in at 47.9, below expectations, indicating continued contraction in the sector ⁶
Source 6
https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20260107/90/1942304/kurs-bca-bri-bank-mandiri-dan-bni-hari-ini-71-saat-rupiah-dibuka-melemah
.

Market Outlook and Projections

Analysts predict that the rupiah will continue to experience fluctuations with a tendency to weaken in the near term. For January 7, 2026, the projected trading range is between Rp16,750 and Rp16,780 per USD ⁶

. The government's successful bond auction, with total demand reaching Rp90.96 trillion against an offering of Rp40 trillion, provided some positive sentiment but was insufficient to halt the rupiah's decline ².

Currency Market Dynamics

The rupiah's performance was not isolated, as other Asian currencies also experienced varying degrees of depreciation against the US dollar. The Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso both declined by 0.14% and 0.12% respectively, while the Singapore dollar and Korean won also weakened ⁴

. [## Sources