Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The Indonesian rupiah weakened for the sixth consecutive trading day, closing at Rp16,777 per USD on Monday (22/12/2025), representing a 0.16% decline ¹

. The currency's decline is attributed to growing concerns over Indonesia's widening budget deficit, projected to reach 2.35% of GDP as of November 2025 ³. Despite positive regional currency movements, with most Asian currencies strengthening, the rupiah remained under pressure due to domestic fiscal concerns and global economic uncertainties ².

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Rupiah Extends Weakness Amid Fiscal Concerns

Currency Under Pressure for Sixth Consecutive Day

The Indonesian rupiah continued its downward trend for the sixth consecutive trading day, closing at Rp16,777 per USD on Monday (22/12/2025), marking a 0.16% depreciation from the previous trading day ¹

. This prolonged weakness contrasts with the broader Asian currency market, where most regional currencies showed strength against the USD ².

Factors Contributing to Rupiah's Weakness

Widening Budget Deficit: Indonesia's budget deficit expanded to 2.35% of GDP as of November 2025, up from 2.02% at the end of October, raising concerns about the country's fiscal health ³
Source 3
https://pusatdata.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-melemah-6-hari-beruntun-terpojok-ke-level-paling-lemah-dalam-3-bulan
.
Global Economic Uncertainties: The US dollar index (DXY) showed mixed movements, while global markets awaited key economic indicators ⁵
Source 5
https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251222/90/1938735/kurs-dolar-as-bca-bri-bank-mandiri-dan-bni-siang-hari-ini-22122025
.
Interest Rate Expectations: Market participants remained cautious amid speculation about potential interest rate movements by Bank Indonesia ⁶
Source 6
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-tertekan-efek-kekhawatiran-suku-bunga-hingga-minggu-pendek-jelang-libur-natal
.

Market Dynamics and Analyst Views

Currency analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi noted that the rupiah's movement was influenced by interest rate expectations and global economic data ⁵

. The World Bank warned of Indonesia's deteriorating fiscal health in the medium term, projecting the budget deficit to approach the psychological threshold of 3% by 2027 ⁵.

Bank Quotes and Currency Movements

Major Indonesian banks adjusted their USD exchange rates accordingly:

BCA: Rp16,768 (buy) / Rp16,788 (sell)
BRI: Rp16,763 (buy) / Rp16,788 (sell)
Mandiri: Rp16,720 (buy) / Rp16,750 (sell)
BNI: Rp16,766 (buy) / Rp16,796 (sell) ⁵
Source 5
https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251222/90/1938735/kurs-dolar-as-bca-bri-bank-mandiri-dan-bni-siang-hari-ini-22122025