Indonesian Stock Market Outlook for 2026: Growth Prospects and Challenges

Positive Macroeconomic Environment

The Indonesian stock market is entering 2026 with strong growth prospects, driven by both global and domestic factors. BNI Sekuritas predicts the IHSG could reach 9,100 by year-end, citing a changing global environment that will create tailwinds for emerging markets like Indonesia ¹

. This optimism is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from The Fed, potentially bringing rates to 3%-3.5% by end-2026 ¹

Source 1

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/suku-bunga-global-turun-bni-sekuritas-optimistis-ihsg-tembus-9100-di-2026

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Market Performance and Sector Outlook

The stock market showed mixed performance in 2025, with equity funds delivering 20.62% returns year-to-date, slightly below the IHSG's 22.17% gain ²

. Looking ahead, analysts remain optimistic about the market's potential. Rully Arya Wisnubroto from Mirae Asset Sekuritas highlights that Indonesia's stock market is likely to grow positively in 2026, despite global challenges such as US economic policy uncertainty ⁵

Source 5

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/prospek-saham-masih-menjanjikan-di-2026-ini-pilihan-sektornya

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Government Initiatives and Market Development

The Indonesian government is implementing various initiatives to boost the stock market. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) has set ambitious targets to become one of the top 10 global stock exchanges within five years, with plans to increase daily trading value to Rp 15 trillion by 2026 ⁶

. Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has expressed confidence that the IHSG could reach 10,000 in 2026, supported by better economic growth compared to the previous year ⁴

Source 4

https://finance.detik.com/bursa-dan-valas/d-8288543/purbaya-tahun-ini-ihsg-10-000-bukan-angka-yang-mustahil

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Challenges and Risk Factors

Despite the positive outlook, the market faces potential challenges. The IHSG showed limited movement in late 2025, with foreign investors recording net sales of Rp 937.79 billion ³

. Market participants are awaiting key economic data releases, including December inflation and November trade balance figures, for clearer direction ³

Source 3

https://finance.detik.com/bursa-dan-valas/d-8288390/ihsg-masih-datar-cek-emiten-yang-umumkan-aksi-korporasi

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