Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to reach 10,000 by end-2026, driven by positive economic growth, increasing domestic investors, and improving market liquidity. Analysts consider this target ambitious but realistic under a bullish scenario, supported by structural reforms and potential re-rating of large-cap stocks ⁶

. The prediction is backed by positive global market trends and Indonesia's improving economic fundamentals ²³.

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesian Stock Market Projected to Hit 10,000 by End-2026

Positive Market Sentiment and Fundamentals

The Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) is expected to reach the 10,000 level by end-2026, according to multiple analyst predictions. This projection is considered ambitious but realistic under a bullish market scenario ⁶

. The forecast is supported by several key factors including Indonesia's positive economic growth outlook, increasing number of domestic investors, and improving market liquidity ¹⁴.

Driving Factors Behind the Projection

Economic Growth: Indonesia's economic fundamentals are showing signs of improvement, supporting the bullish outlook for the stock market ⁶
Source 6
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-diprediksi-menuju-10000-di-akhir-2026-analis-realistis-dalam-skenario-bullish
.
Domestic Investor Growth: The number of domestic investors has reached 19.19 million Single Investor Identification (SID), indicating strong participation in the market ⁴
Source 4
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-diprediksi-tembus-level-9000-pada-2026-ini-sentimen-pendorongnya
.
Market Liquidity: Improved liquidity has contributed to the market's ability to sustain growth ¹
Source 1
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-diprediksi-sentuh-10000-di-akhir-2026-pengamat-ambisius-tapi-masih-realistis
.
Global Market Trends: Positive movements in global stock markets, particularly in the US, are expected to have a positive spillover effect on Indonesian markets ²
Source 2
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ihsg-berpotensi-lanjut-menguat-pada-senin-512026-cermati-sentimen-penggeraknya
³
Source 3
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/january-effect-membuka-peluang-ihsg-bergerak-positif
.

Sectoral Performance

The IDX Basic Materials index has shown significant growth, rising by 64.40% year-to-date to 2,058.134 by end-2025. This sector is expected to continue its positive performance into 2026, driven by commodity price increases and economic recovery ⁵

.

Analyst Perspectives

Experts from various financial institutions, including Kiwoom Sekuritas and Maybank Indonesia, support the 10,000 IHSG target. They highlight factors such as domestic liquidity recovery, structural reforms, and re-rating of large-cap stocks, particularly in the banking sector, as key drivers ⁶