Indonesia's 2025 Budget Deficit Projected Lower Than Expected

Economic Growth and Fiscal Management

Indonesia's 2025 budget deficit is anticipated to be lower than initial projections, coming in at approximately 2.29% of GDP ¹

. This figure is below both the original target of 2.53% of GDP and the Ministry of Finance's outlook of 2.78% of GDP. The reduced deficit is attributed to various economic factors and government fiscal management.

Economic Growth Projections

Economic growth is showing positive momentum, with Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa expressing confidence that the economy will grow by 5.6-5.7% in Q4 2025 ³

. This optimism is based on the continuation of effective government policies and positive developments across various economic sectors. For 2026, the minister projects further acceleration to 6% growth, indicating a strong recovery trajectory.

Sectoral Contributions

The economic growth in Q3 2025 was 5.04%, with significant contributions from: ³

• Manufacturing sector (1.13% contribution)
• Trade sector (0.72% contribution)
• Information and communication (0.63% contribution)
• Agriculture (0.61% contribution)

These sectors have been crucial in maintaining the growth momentum despite global economic challenges.

Fiscal Discipline

Finance Minister Purbaya has emphasized the government's commitment to maintaining the budget deficit below the 3% threshold mandated by law ⁴

. As of September 30, 2025, the deficit stood at Rp 371.5 trillion, or 1.56% of GDP, well within the safe limit. The minister assured that the government would continue to manage fiscal policy prudently to balance growth stimulation with fiscal sustainability.