Indonesia's Coal Export Decline in 2025: Challenges and Outlook for 2026

Significant Drop in Export Value and Volume

Indonesia's coal exports experienced a substantial decline in 2025, according to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The export value in the first eleven months (January-November 2025) reached US$22.17 billion, representing a 20.27% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 (US$27.80 billion) ¹

. In terms of volume, coal exports amounted to 354.64 million tons, down 3.97% from the previous year's 269.31 million tons ¹

Source 1

https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/ekspor-batubara-2026-moderat-pengusaha-masih-tunggu-keputusan-pemotongan-produksi

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Factors Contributing to the Decline

The decline in coal exports can be attributed to various factors, including global demand dynamics and domestic policies. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) noted that while global coal demand is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026, particularly driven by Asian markets, the growth is anticipated to be limited ¹

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APBI's Outlook for 2026

Gita Mahyarani, Executive Director of APBI, highlighted that several countries are becoming more selective in their coal imports due to energy transition agendas and domestic policy adjustments. This trend is likely to impact Indonesia's coal export performance in 2026, suggesting a cautious outlook for the industry ¹

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BPS Insights on Export Performance

The BPS data revealed that the decline in export value was not limited to coal alone. Other mining commodities such as copper ore, lignite, zirconium ore, tantalum, and titanium ore also experienced decreases ²

. Pudji Ismartini, Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, attributed the overall export decline primarily to the mining sector, which dropped by 22.28% and contributed 3.55% to the overall decrease ²

Source 2

https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/ekspor-komoditas-tambang-2025-terkoreksi-2026-berpotensi-tertekan

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Implications for Indonesia's Mining Sector

The decline in coal exports and the cautious outlook for 2026 underscore the challenges facing Indonesia's mining sector. As global energy policies continue to shift towards cleaner sources, Indonesian coal producers will need to adapt to these changing dynamics. The moderate growth forecast for 2026, mainly driven by Asian demand, suggests that the industry will remain under pressure to adjust to evolving market conditions.