Indonesia's CPO Exports Facing Challenges in 2026

Regulatory and Economic Pressures

Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) exports are expected to face significant challenges in 2026, with a projected decline of 5-10% according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Farmers Organization (POPSI) ¹

. The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is a major concern as it may restrict market access to the EU, a significant destination for Indonesian CPO ¹

Source 1

https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/ada-program-b50-ekspor-cpo-bisa-susut-5-10-pada-2026

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Production and Market Dynamics

The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) notes that CPO production has been stagnant throughout 2025, creating supply challenges despite increasing demand ³

. While export volumes rose to 27.691 million tons by October 2025 compared to 24.837 million tons in the same period last year, this growth was largely due to competitive pricing rather than increased production ³

Source 3

https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/pengusaha-kelapa-sawit-proyeksikan-ekspor-cpo-masih-akan-tertekan-di-2026

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Economic Outlook and Commodity Prices

Economic experts warn that Indonesia's export performance in 2026 will be further pressured by the global economic slowdown, particularly in major trading partners like China, India, and Japan ²

. The declining trend in global commodity prices, including CPO, coal, and nickel, is expected to continue into 2026, affecting Indonesia's export revenues ²

Source 2

https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/ekspor-indonesia-diproyeksi-melambat-pada-tahun-2026

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Domestic Policy Factors

The implementation of the B50 biodiesel program (mandating 50% palm oil content in biodiesel) is creating uncertainty in CPO supply for exports ¹

. This domestic policy factor, combined with external pressures, is making it difficult for international buyers to predict Indonesia's CPO supply ¹

Source 1

https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/ada-program-b50-ekspor-cpo-bisa-susut-5-10-pada-2026

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