Indonesia's Crude Oil Price Declines to $61.10/bbl in December 2025

Global Oversupply and Easing Geopolitical Tensions Drive Price Drop

The Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) for December 2025 has been officially set at $61.10 per barrel, marking a significant decrease of $1.73 per barrel from the previous month's $62.83 per barrel. This decision, as outlined in the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources' Decree No. 10.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2026 dated January 9, 2025, reflects the current dynamics in the global oil market.

Key Factors Contributing to Price Decline

1. Global Oil Oversupply: The market is experiencing an oversupply condition, primarily driven by increased production from the United States. The OPEC+ production also saw an increase in November 2025, reaching 43.065 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous year.
2. Easing Geopolitical Tensions: The potential reduction in Russia-Ukraine conflict risks, following Ukraine's indication to withdraw its NATO membership aspirations, has contributed to the price drop. Russia's announcement of projected oil production increase to 10.36 million barrels per day in 2025, and further to 10.54 million barrels per day in 2026, has added to the supply concerns.
3. Revised Demand Projections: S&P Global revised its 2025 demand growth projection downward by 16 thousand barrels per day to 730 thousand barrels per day. This reduction in demand expectations has further pressured prices.

Global Oil Market Trends

The decline in ICP is consistent with the trends observed in major oil benchmarks during December 2025:

• Dated Brent: Decreased by $0.95/bbl to $62.70/bbl
• WTI (Nymex): Fell by $1.61/bbl to $57.87/bbl
• Brent (ICE): Dropped by $2.02/bbl to $61.64/bbl
• OPEC Basket: Down by $2.61/bbl to $61.85/bbl

Market Outlook

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the global oil market will remain in surplus through 2026, with an expected surplus of 3.7-4 million barrels per day. This ongoing oversupply situation, coupled with the current geopolitical developments, is likely to continue influencing oil prices in the near term. The crude throughput in China, a significant factor for the Asia-Pacific region, also saw a decrease of 0.9% month-over-month in November 2025, reaching 14.86 million barrels per day - the lowest in six months.