Indonesia's Q4 2025 Economic Growth Forecast: 5.4-5.6%

Economic Optimism and Projections

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto has expressed optimism about Indonesia's economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting a range of 5.4% to 5.6%. This forecast, while positive, is slightly below Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa's projection of 5.7% for the same period. The official Q4 economic growth figure is scheduled to be released in February 2026, providing a definitive assessment of the year's economic performance.

Government Confidence in Economic Performance

Airlangga Hartarto, speaking at ICE BSD in Kabupaten Tangerang, Banten, on November 26, 2025, conveyed his confidence that the economy would grow by more than 5%. The minister's projection is based on various economic indicators that suggest a robust performance in the final quarter of the year. While there is a slight variation between the projections made by Airlangga and the Finance Minister, both underscore the government's overall optimism regarding the country's economic trajectory.

Implications for Economic Policy and Future Growth

The anticipated strong economic growth in Q4 2025 could have significant implications for Indonesia's overall economic performance for the year. A growth rate within the projected range would be a positive indicator of the effectiveness of current economic policies and could influence future policy decisions. The government's continued optimism, as reflected in these projections, suggests a stable economic environment that could attract further investment and support sustained growth into 2026.