Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Indonesia's external debt declined to $423.9 billion (Rp7.059 trillion) as of October 2025, down 0.4% from September 2025 ¹

. The decrease was primarily driven by a reduction in private sector debt to $190.7 billion, while government debt rose 4.7% YoY to $210.5 billion due to foreign investment in international sovereign bonds ¹³. The debt-to-GDP ratio remained relatively stable at 29.3% ¹.

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesia's External Debt Position as of October 2025

Overview of External Debt Dynamics

Indonesia's external debt decreased to $423.9 billion (approximately Rp7.059 trillion) by the end of October 2025, representing a 0.4% decline from the previous month's $425.6 billion ¹

³. This movement was primarily driven by a significant reduction in private sector external debt.

Government vs. Private Sector Debt

The composition of Indonesia's external debt shows contrasting trends between government and private sector obligations. Government external debt rose to $210.5 billion, marking a 4.7% year-on-year increase ¹

³. This growth was attributed to strong foreign investor appetite for Indonesian international sovereign bonds, reflecting continued confidence in Indonesia's economic prospects despite global financial market uncertainties ³.

In contrast, private sector external debt continued its downward trend, decreasing to $190.7 billion in October 2025 from $192.5 billion in September 2025 ¹

². This represents a 1.9% year-on-year contraction, with financial corporations showing a 4.7% decline and non-financial corporations decreasing by 1.2% ¹.

Sectoral Distribution and Debt Metrics

The government debt is predominantly long-term, with 99.9% being non-current ¹

. The utilization of government external debt is focused on priority sectors such as health and social services (22.2%), government administration and defense (19.6%), and education (16.4%) ¹.

For the private sector, the largest debt exposures remain in manufacturing, financial services, and energy sectors, collectively accounting for 80.9% of total private external debt ¹

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Macroeconomic Implications

The external debt-to-GDP ratio improved slightly to 29.3% by end-October 2025 from 29.5% in the previous month, indicating a relatively stable external debt position ¹

. The long-term nature of Indonesia's external debt is evident from the 86.2% share of total debt being long-term, slightly higher than the previous month's 86.1% ¹.

Authorities' Response and Future Outlook

Bank Indonesia and the government continue to strengthen their coordination in monitoring external debt developments. The authorities aim to optimize the role of external debt in supporting national development while minimizing associated risks to economic stability ¹

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References