Indonesia's ICP Drops to $62.83/Barrel in November 2025

Global Market Factors Drive Decline

Indonesia's Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) for November 2025 has been set at $62.83 per barrel, representing a decrease of $0.80 per barrel from the previous month's $63.62 per barrel ¹

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Source 2

https://finance.detik.com/energi/d-8263067/harga-minyak-mentah-indonesia-turun-jadi-us-62-83-barel

. This change was formalized through Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 416.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2025 dated December 10, 2025.

The decline in ICP is primarily attributed to the strengthening US dollar, which has prompted investors to shift funds to money market instruments, thereby pressuring commodity prices including crude oil ¹

. Laode Sulaeman, Director General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, highlighted that this shift in investor behavior has been a significant factor in the price movement.

Global Oil Market Dynamics

Several global factors have contributed to the decline in ICP:

1. OPEC+ Production Plans: The OPEC+ agreement to increase supply by 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025 has added to global supply concerns ²
   Source 2

   https://finance.detik.com/energi/d-8263067/harga-minyak-mentah-indonesia-turun-jadi-us-62-83-barel
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2. Non-OPEC+ Production Growth: Non-OPEC+ oil production is expected to increase by about 900,000 barrels per day in 2025, reaching an average of 54.1 million barrels per day, driven by countries like Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina ²
   Source 2

   https://finance.detik.com/energi/d-8263067/harga-minyak-mentah-indonesia-turun-jadi-us-62-83-barel
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3. Global Oil Inventory: The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil inventories surged by 77.7 million barrels in November 2025, reaching their highest level since July 2021 ²
   Source 2

   https://finance.detik.com/energi/d-8263067/harga-minyak-mentah-indonesia-turun-jadi-us-62-83-barel
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4. Potential Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire: The possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could potentially ease sanctions on Russia, leading to increased oil supply and further downward pressure on prices ²
   Source 2

   https://finance.detik.com/energi/d-8263067/harga-minyak-mentah-indonesia-turun-jadi-us-62-83-barel
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5. Saudi Arabia's Price Adjustment: Arab Saudi has reduced its crude oil prices for Asian buyers by an average of $1.20-$1.40 per barrel for December 2025 shipments, reflecting market conditions amid increased OPEC+ production ²
   Source 2

   https://finance.detik.com/energi/d-8263067/harga-minyak-mentah-indonesia-turun-jadi-us-62-83-barel
   .

Impact on Indonesian Crude Price

The average prices of major crude oil benchmarks also declined in November 2025:

• Dated Brent: Down $1.10/bbl to $63.65/bbl
• WTI (Nymex): Down $0.59/bbl to $59.48/bbl
• Brent (ICE): Down $0.29/bbl to $63.66/bbl
• OPEC Basket: Down $0.67/bbl to $64.47/bbl
• ICP: Down $0.80/bbl to $62.83/bbl ²
  Source 2

  https://finance.detik.com/energi/d-8263067/harga-minyak-mentah-indonesia-turun-jadi-us-62-83-barel